Here is an interesting poker hand analysis from WCOOP that I played against fellow poker pro Julian Stuer. Julian actually contact me on Facebook after the hand asking me what I had in it. I agreed to tell him my hand and thoughts about it provided I get his poker hand analysis on each street. So put both our poker hand analysis together, enjoy:
Here is how the hand plays out given Julian’s hand:
No Limit Holdem Tournament • 9 Players
Generated by weaktight.com.
Blinds 300/600 Ante 70
- Flop (3,330, 2 players)
- Turn (7,326, 2 players)
- River (14,226, 2 players)
I will reveal my hand at the end of this article, for now I will be talking more about my range and frequencies.
Michael: So I start out with 93bb UTG+1 at a rather aggressive table. I was playing most hands for pure value, opening fairly tight. I was playing most of my marginal hands based on game flow, dynamic and my recent frequencies. To put this in other words, a hand like ATo or AJo was not an auto open at that point. I was more likely to open 98s than ATo due to stack sizes and post flop playability.
Anyway, I get a hand I decided to open. I minraise.
Julian: UTG+1 opens – he was playing somewhat tight and straightforward so far. I defend KQo pretty close against his UTG range, but I am able to move postflop so it’s close but ok I think.
Michael: I get called by the big blind. I didnt know who he was, all I knew was that he was German and that so far I had to assume he was a decent player. I was not assuming he was a top MTT pro mainly since I havent seen his name nor did I have stats on him. I was guessing he most likely was a cash game player. However I did look him up with the search function and saw he had a lot of deep runs. So I had to assume he was at least decent.
Michael: Bet about 60% pot its pretty drawheavy. I would bet this board with probably 100% unless there is some reason not to. It be also very hard for Julian to have a very strong hand other than a set and I am not sure he would checkraise since I often barrel turns.
Julian: He bets the drawy flop pretty big, which he should do we with 100% of his range here.
I was considering a check/raise and call a shove, since he will barrel me on this flop a lot, since my perceived range is KQ/KJ,65s and maybe 67s if i only call and it bricks off – so i have a pretty hard time calling the river.
Additionally I only call flop+ a blank turn, he will weight my range somewhat more to Kx and have an easy bulffship or can valuetown me.
But i decided to call only, since he will shut down on some scary turns or rivers – the problem here is I don’t know how capable he is to bluff 3 streets here against a hand like KQ , since we have no history.
Turn: 6c (Kh5d4h 6c)
Michael: Julian did check call rather quickly. I was expecting him to do so most of the time on the flop. On the turn I would continue barelling here with all top pairs or better and all draws that have 8 outs or more. I would occasionally also barrel hands like AJ and AQ, simply because I have occasionally 6 outs.
I bet a little over 40% pot leaving just a bit over pot on river.
Julian: Turn comes a 6 and he barrels like expected, since know I have to call hands like 67 which I have to fold , so I decide to call and call almost all Rivers (although I get valuetowned very very often).
Additionally he bets less than half pot, which I dont expect him to do with a really strong hand, unless KK – so I can now weight his range somewhat more to draws.
River: 3c (Kh5d4h 6c 3c)
Michael: I did notice Julian check calling again rather quick on turn. His hand to me felt like a Kx hand. I dont think he check calls turn with a straight (only real combo is 8h7h) on turn or a set, at least not that often. After all the board is starting to look very scary. I guess he could trap with a set, but didnt consider this very likely. I do think however that he also check calls turn with 77.
So his range to me on river is Kx, and 77 to like 90%. Occasionally he has hands like JJ-AA that he didnt 3 bet pre.
I shoved all in. His only real decision was with Kx hands. There are essentially 3 levels of thinking on this river:
1. I have top pair I call
2. I dont beat anything but a bluff, I fold
3. The river brings in a lot of his range that second barrels thus my opponent should bluff a lot on this river: I call
4. The river brings in a lot of his range that second barrels but his pre flop range doesnt contain that many hands my opponent can second barrel thus he shouldn’t bluff a lot on this river: I fold
I did put him on number 3. and was shoving AK+ for value.
Julian: River 3 completes the one cardstr-8 and he slightly overshoves…
- I thought he is the kind of guy (afaik I have seen him playing) who doesnt Overshove like AA/AK here and will b/f like w 8k ? (Good players should shove of course here)
- He can easy have sth like 67 which would reason the somewhat lower turn cbet
- I don’t beat anything besides complete bluffs anymore… and high busted FD, but I block a lot with my Qh
Pretty easy fold in hindsight.
Michael: Julian tanks for over 2 minutes. I was convinced that he had a Kx hand especially after he folded. I even thought for a while that maybe he even folded a set. But seeing him play afterwards made this really unlikely.
To everybody that is curious what I actually had:
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